IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.0	#123
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#301
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.3	#106

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.6	#140

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	27.5%	27.9%	17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	0.8%	0.3%
Average Seed	13.2	13.2	14.4

.500 or above	84.9%	86.0%	57.5%
.500 or above in Conference	90.1%	90.5%	77.5%
Conference Champion	36.2%	37.0%	17.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.7%	2.9%

First Four	1.0%	1.0%	1.9%
First Round	27.1%	27.5%	16.8%
Second Round	4.8%	4.9%	1.6%
Sweet Sixteen	1.3%	1.3%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	2 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 4	7 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 2	19 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	340	South Carolina Upstate	W	80-61	96%
Nov 09, 2019	162	Georgia St.	W	75-69	72%
Nov 13, 2019	49	Oklahoma St.	L	67-71	36%
Nov 19, 2019	188	@ Marshall	W	79-77	57%
Nov 23, 2019	94	@ Central Florida	L	63-68	34%
Nov 28, 2019	91	Wake Forest	L	69-71	42%
Dec 14, 2019	105	@ Richmond	L	68-72	36%
Dec 18, 2019	28	Virginia Commonwealth	L	66-72	29%
Dec 21, 2019	323	South Carolina St.	W	80-64	92%
Dec 28, 2019	254	@ Drexel	W	76-71	67%
Dec 30, 2019	240	@ Delaware	W	69-65	65%
Jan 02, 2020	181	Towson	W	70-62	74%
Jan 04, 2020	232	James Madison	W	73-63	80%
Jan 09, 2020	317	@ Elon	W	76-66	80%
Jan 11, 2020	246	@ William & Mary	W	75-70	66%
Jan 16, 2020	130	Northeastern	W	71-67	64%
Jan 18, 2020	148	Hofstra	W	75-70	66%
Jan 25, 2020	268	UNC Wilmington	W	81-69	84%
Jan 30, 2020	232	@ James Madison	W	70-66	62%
Feb 01, 2020	181	@ Towson	W	67-65	55%
Feb 06, 2020	246	William & Mary	W	78-67	81%
Feb 08, 2020	317	Elon	W	79-63	90%
Feb 13, 2020	148	@ Hofstra	L	72-73	47%
Feb 15, 2020	130	@ Northeastern	L	68-70	44%
Feb 22, 2020	268	@ UNC Wilmington	W	78-72	69%
Feb 27, 2020	240	Delaware	W	72-62	80%
Feb 29, 2020	254	Drexel	W	79-68	82%
Projected Record						17 - 10	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.7	3.2	6.7	9.4	8.5	5.5	2.1		36.2	1st
2nd											0.1	1.1	4.7	7.2	5.7	2.4	0.4				21.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.7	4.7	5.0	2.6	0.4	0.0					14.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	1.2	3.6	3.6	1.2	0.1	0.0						9.8	4th
5th								0.1	0.8	2.6	2.3	0.7	0.0								6.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	0.7	2.0	1.7	0.4	0.0									4.9	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	0.9	0.3											3.0	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.5	0.9	0.6	0.1												2.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0												1.0	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.4	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.7	2.8	3.9	5.9	8.0	10.2	11.7	13.1	12.9	11.8	8.9	5.5	2.1			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	2.1		2.1
17-1	100.0%	5.5		5.4	0.1
16-2	95.4%	8.5		7.5	1.0	0.0
15-3	79.6%	9.4		6.9	2.4	0.1
14-4	52.4%	6.7		3.7	2.5	0.5	0.0
13-5	24.3%	3.2		1.0	1.5	0.6	0.1
12-6	6.2%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.8%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	36.2%	36.2		26.7	7.7	1.5	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	2.1%		78.1%	70.9%	7.2%	9.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0			0.5		24.7%
17-1	5.5%		62.6%	58.3%	4.3%	11.7					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0		2.1		10.2%
16-2	8.9%		51.5%	50.0%	1.5%	12.6									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.0	4.3		3.0%
15-3	11.8%		41.1%	40.9%	0.3%	13.2										0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0	1.9	1.4	0.4	0.0	6.9		0.4%
14-4	12.9%		34.2%	34.2%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.5	1.4	1.5	0.8	0.1	8.5		0.0%
13-5	13.1%		25.5%	25.5%	0.0%	14.1													0.1	0.7	1.3	1.0	0.2	9.8		0.0%
12-6	11.7%		19.0%	19.0%		14.5													0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.3	9.5
11-7	10.2%		13.4%	13.4%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	0.4	8.8
10-8	8.0%		11.0%	11.0%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	7.2
9-9	5.9%		7.4%	7.4%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	5.5
8-10	3.9%		6.1%	6.1%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	3.6
7-11	2.8%		1.4%	1.4%		15.8																0.0	0.0	2.7
6-12	1.7%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																0.0	0.0	1.7
5-13	1.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
4-14	0.4%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		27.5%	26.9%	0.6%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.4	1.4	4.8	7.0	6.5	4.4	1.9	72.5		0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	4.1	0.7	10.3	34.7	17.7	14.3	16.3	5.0	0.3			0.3	0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	6.7				2.9	5.7	40.0	40.0		5.7		5.7